Thursday, February 19, 2009

Sell the dollar!

OK, I'm doing it. Today's move has convinced me that sterling could rally again.
When I get home tonight I'm going to withdraw a decent chunk of my US dollar roll and put it in sterling.
It is not quite at its low - the dollar having reached $1.38 last month. It currently stands at $1.43.

My thinking on when to cash out has been murky since the start of the year. The UK economy is in the shit and the Government is planning to print a whole load of money to get us out of it. Coupled with this is the legacy of huge budget deficit thanks in part to Gordon Brown's spending while he was Chancellor.

However, I think the market has decided that Obama's spending plans ($787bn) dwarf Briton's and that the dollar has overshot.

I may be wrong and the pound may go lower, but I don't think by much, and I want to cash with in the $1.40s rather than 1.50s or 1.60s.

As a caveat, I'm not as confident on this prediction as I was on my last few - when I called the crash in sterling - but this is what I plan to do tonight.

As for poker....haven't played a hand since the weekend :)

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