Monday, May 26, 2008
The reason: Grand Theft Auto IV - a beast of a game.
Yesterday I pissed around with the Omaha $3 SNGs again, taking a 1st and two 2nds in five attempts, but lost the small profit playing some HORSE.
As for my currency predictions - I'm still very confident of a dollar rebound, which is becoming the consensus view. One report by Morgan Stanley suggested the dollar was 15% overvalued versus the pound - pointing to at least $1.75. It may not get there until the end of the year but if you can hold on it beats any interest rate you'll get in a bank account.
Gonna play a bit of poker now so wish me luck!
Sunday, May 18, 2008
I busted just out of the money on the same Omaha H/L tourney I played last week. It was bad play by me when I misread a hand that prompted my demise.
I also busted out of a $10 + $1 NL Holdem tourney less than an hour in.
The cash was a fifth in a $10 + $1 90 man SNG on Full tilt, I got $55 and a few more for busting a couple of fishees.
Thursday, May 15, 2008
However, if I was a betting man, and I am, I would predict a stronger dollar than the pound on a 12-month view.
Maybe $1.50 is a bit ambitious; but I will definitely exchange some of my roll at $1.70. We stand at $1.95 today, down from a high of $2.10 late last year.
Reasons: first up the pound is overvalued – this is a consensus view. The Economist magazine created the Big Mac index, which measures the price of McDonald's famous burger in various countries. A bizarre concept but it is a measure that has gained some traction.
A Big Mac in the euro zone cost $4.17 in the UK vs. $3.41 in the US (this is back in July when the index was last updated).
Second, the main driver of currencies are interest rates. Where do the big financial institutions park their cash? Where interest rates are highest.
Interest rates in the UK are currently higher than in the US – BUT expectations are that interest rates will need to come down more in the UK than in the US. Our economy is in the mire, and growth stagnating, the market expectation is for interest rate cuts at some point to stimulate growth.
Against this the US is near the bottom of its rate-cutting cycle and the expectation is for one, max two more cuts.
Ok, I’m ignoring inflation pressures but this is just a blog after all and it is all very complicated.
Suffice it say I have been happy to keep my poker money in dollars on Neteller and various other sites, losing the potential for interest. This is partly for bankroll reasons but also as I feel the pound is too strong and had to come back.
Tuesday, May 13, 2008
Just dropped $150 bluffing like hell on Mansion in less than 45 mins, some of the calls people made on me were crazy but still...
My job is gambling - I'm basically spending every day working out how to make money from the markets - Are commodities in a bubble? Is energy a good bet? Can Japan come good this year? Will China rebound? The dollar or sterling?
Is this affecting my poker play? Not really, I'm drunk and need some food but it makes gambling when I come home every evening less appealing.
I'm addicted to this game so I'm sure I will carry on playing, but I'm worried about blowing through my stack on a whim.
My roll is in dollars and I think the dollar is set for a rebound. Some currency experts are forecasting it may get to $1.50. If it does I may consider withdrawing some of it.
Monday, May 12, 2008
I basically threw away my chips when my foe made it obvious he had hit a set. For over three hours I was able to fold, but not at the crucial moment when the tourney was up for grabs.
Psyhcologically if you are slowly chipping up you feel in control but I started losing a few chips just before the final table and this sent me on mini-tilt. Not enough to throw me off my game but too eager to push all-in to try and win tem back.
When we made the final three I was shortie with 40k against my foes 80k and 100k, but with the blinds at 2,4k I had more than enough to play a few hands.
O well next time...
Didn't make the top 100 in the Planets challenge again, 400 points this time. I'm sure I'll try again soon when I know I have an easy week workwise coming up.
Saturday, May 10, 2008
Good score but I was in the top two the entire tourney right up until the end.
I tripled up on the very first hand and basically limped A LOT, nabbed lots of pots and folded to any strength. For the first two hours the deck was hitting me in the face and I just chipped up and up.
I was only worried about one foe late on - who unfortunately was sitting to my left - and had worked out what I was up to.
During the week I haven't played much cash but pissed around with the $3 Omaha H/L games in an attempt to get on the Planets leaderboard again. I have one game left and need to come first or second to get a middling position.
Monday, May 05, 2008
I lost $100 on one table but got half of that back on the other three tables.
The two hands which killed me were AA v QQ - all-in pre-flop, foe spikes a Q and then set under set, my 555 v his KKK.
I managed to control the tilt, which I take as a plus, but still mighty galling.
Been putting in the hours this weekend, mainly on Mansion Poker.
My sessions over the last two days read like this:
2 hrs 17 mins, +$175.44, 392 hands
1 hr, -$43.25, 233 hands
1 hr 28 mins, +$74.75, 337 hands
1 hr 37 mins, -$50.05, 401 hands
53 mins, +$44.35, 99 hands
27 mins, +$4.70, 105 hands
So, around 1500 hands for a profit $200, or 13BB/100 hands which I'm very pleased with. Mansion is 90% Scandinavian and there are some super aggressive players. Even on ten-man tables there are certain players who play position very well and seem to chip up consistently.
The only way to play them is to put them to the test, as they are often playing with air.
He's a hand when I caught one out - I had played him before and knew he was very aggressive.
Hand P4-66930145-289, Started at 04/05/2008 20:40 (EDT)
Table 'Steyr': $1-$1 No Limit HE (Real)
Seat 0: Triglycenide ($220.05 in chips)
Seat 1: GiveUsATwirl ($100 in chips)
Seat 2: dvorn3k ($97.30 in chips)
Seat 3: Haieral ($99.80 in chips)
Seat 4: litemyfire25 ($139.70 in chips)
Seat 5: chiquili4 ($100 in chips)
Seat 6: SillySal x ($142.40 in chips) (on the button)
Seat 7: GiveMeDolars ($102 in chips)
Seat 8: RIZLA POKER ($17 in chips)
*** Blind Bet Round *** :
GiveMeDolars : Post Blind ($0.50)
RIZLA POKER : Post Blind ($1)
GiveUsATwirl : Post Blind ($1)
Dealt to GiveUsATwirl: [ 6s. 8s]
*** Pre-Flop *** :
GiveUsATwirl : Check
SillySal x : Bet ($3)
GiveMeDolars : Call ($2.50)
GiveUsATwirl : Call ($2)
*** Flop *** : 2s Ks 9h (Flush draw)
GiveMeDolars : Check
GiveUsATwirl : Bet ($3)
SillySal x : Raise ($15) - Don't believe you
GiveMeDolars : Fold
GiveUsATwirl : Raise ($35)
SillySal x : Fold
*** SUMMARY ***
Pot: $61 | Rake: $2
Board: [ 2s Ks 9h ]
Triglycenide lost $0
GiveUsATwirl bet $41, collected $61, net $20
I also played three tournies on Stars and Full Tilt, I cashed in all three but didn't break the bank.
The first was a 10FPP $500 which attracted thousands, I basically folded/pushed my way to a 0.15c payout. Wooot!
I also reached the final table of $3, 90 man SNG on Full Tilt. 5th place. My Ks couldn't beat AQo.
And finally, I made it to 250th in a $5 tournie on Stars with 2500 entrants. I was card dead for the first hour like I've never been before, no prs and my best hand was A9s in 70 hands. I basically nursed my short stack into the money, winning about $15 for my trouble.
I'm also having another crack at the Battle of the Planets thing on Stars. Will update about that when I'm done, don't want to tempt fate!
Saturday, May 03, 2008
After my blackjack woes of last weekend, I didn't play any poker until last night. The break did me good.
During the break I decided to play the $100 tables again.
Last nighy on Pokerstars, I managed to win $60 four-tabling on two $50 and two $100.
This morning I logged on to Mansion Poker and begun four-tabling the $100 tables.
One table in particular, an eight-man table was soooooo loose. If only foes could be this bad all the time.
TEXAS_HOLDEM, NO_LIMIT, P4-66808153-163
Seat 1: skriver2000 ($39 in chips)
Seat 2: tsekke ($29.25 in chips)
Seat 3: giuse75 ($70.55 in chips)
Seat 6: lucabrasi73 ($235.85 in chips)
Seat 7: geronimo62x ($82.85 in chips)
Seat 8: GiveUsATwirl ($143.45 in chips) - THIS IS ME ON MANSION
Seat 9: riela ($105.45 in chips)
Seat 10: orpedo ($153.95 in chips)
orpedo posts blind ($0.50), skriver2000 posts blind ($1).
tsekke calls $1, giuse75 bets $5, (I'd seen him do this with ATC including K7s and Q3s)
lucabrasi73 calls $5, geronimo62x folds, GiveUsATwirl calls $5 with [ QH,KD ], three fold, tsekke calls $4.
Four way action
FLOP [board cards: JD,QC,TD ]
tsekke checks, giuse75 bets $5, lucabrasi73 bets $19, GiveUsATwirl calls $19, tsekke folds, giuse75 calls $14.
TURN [board cards: JD,QC,TD,AH ] - O yes...
giuse75 checks, lucabrasi73 checks, GiveUsATwirl bets $30, giuse75 bets $46.55 and is all-in, lucabrasi73 calls $46.55, GiveUsATwirl calls $16.55.
RIVER [board cards: JD,QC,TD,AH,2C ]
lucabrasi73 checks, GiveUsATwirl bets $30, lucabrasi73 calls $30.
GiveUsATwirl shows [ QH,KD ]
giuse75 mucks cards [ JS,TS ]
lucabrasi73 mucks cards [ JH,TH ]
GiveUsATwirl wins $60, GiveUsATwirl wins $215.15.
I wasn't folding top pr and an open-ended str8 draw against these two. Lucabrasi was sitting on a huge stack through luck rather than any poker skill and giuse literally couldn't check.
This hand makes me feel a lot better about poker!