One of my old journalist colleagues - now political editor of the Manchester Evening News - has been obsessively writing a rather good blog for the past three years.
It mostly covers politics - both local to Manchester and national - but he has started a mini-competition which follows the shirt sponsors of various football clubs.
Global recession. Football. Fun
The reason I mention this is that I am "The Insider".
I've had a go at predicting the winners but I reckon I have just as much chance as any one else.
If you fancy playing, drop by his blog and post yr predictions in his comments.
GL!
Monday, February 23, 2009
Friday, February 20, 2009
Ooops
Seems Neteller has downgraded my account so I need to email them some bumpf before they will let me at my roll...
So no, I didn't pull my US $ last night.
The market opens down 2.5% and sterling down 0.83% against the dollar - so maybe a blessing in disguise.
So no, I didn't pull my US $ last night.
The market opens down 2.5% and sterling down 0.83% against the dollar - so maybe a blessing in disguise.
Thursday, February 19, 2009
Sell the dollar!
OK, I'm doing it. Today's move has convinced me that sterling could rally again.
When I get home tonight I'm going to withdraw a decent chunk of my US dollar roll and put it in sterling.
It is not quite at its low - the dollar having reached $1.38 last month. It currently stands at $1.43.
My thinking on when to cash out has been murky since the start of the year. The UK economy is in the shit and the Government is planning to print a whole load of money to get us out of it. Coupled with this is the legacy of huge budget deficit thanks in part to Gordon Brown's spending while he was Chancellor.
However, I think the market has decided that Obama's spending plans ($787bn) dwarf Briton's and that the dollar has overshot.
I may be wrong and the pound may go lower, but I don't think by much, and I want to cash with in the $1.40s rather than 1.50s or 1.60s.
As a caveat, I'm not as confident on this prediction as I was on my last few - when I called the crash in sterling - but this is what I plan to do tonight.
As for poker....haven't played a hand since the weekend :)
When I get home tonight I'm going to withdraw a decent chunk of my US dollar roll and put it in sterling.
It is not quite at its low - the dollar having reached $1.38 last month. It currently stands at $1.43.
My thinking on when to cash out has been murky since the start of the year. The UK economy is in the shit and the Government is planning to print a whole load of money to get us out of it. Coupled with this is the legacy of huge budget deficit thanks in part to Gordon Brown's spending while he was Chancellor.
However, I think the market has decided that Obama's spending plans ($787bn) dwarf Briton's and that the dollar has overshot.
I may be wrong and the pound may go lower, but I don't think by much, and I want to cash with in the $1.40s rather than 1.50s or 1.60s.
As a caveat, I'm not as confident on this prediction as I was on my last few - when I called the crash in sterling - but this is what I plan to do tonight.
As for poker....haven't played a hand since the weekend :)
Friday, February 13, 2009
Sets and the dollar
For cash game regulars, sets are the most profitable hands in poker.
You have disguise and more often than not, surety that you have the best hand. The perfect storm is when u are up against an overpair or big ace that hits.
Extracting the most money out of sets is an art; sniffing out sets even more so - but to be profitable consistently playing full ring hold'em cash you need to have this skill.
Case in point last night. I was four-tabling my usual $50 cash games and slowly chipping up.
I had doubled up on one table when I got involved in a big hand with a player who had recently sat down.
I flat-called his EP $2 raise with AKo in mid position and saw a two-way flop of AJx (2 hearts). He led out just under the pot on the flop, I smooth-called. Turn a second Ace. He again leads out 3/4 of the pot. I call. River a blank heart, he fires out a $23 bet.
What does he have?
Well, unless he is bluffing he has to have at least AK, AQ, AJ, JJ or flush - and that's it.
Is he bluffing? You very, very, very rarely get full-ring players who play this aggressively - firing three bluffs in a row is tough! As I said earlier, he had only recently sat down so I had no read on him.
What I should have done was type his name into 'Find a Player' (we were playing on Pokerstars) - he was sitting at 10-tables. A multi-table bot. No bluffs. A clear fold.
As it was I made a terrible call and duly lost.
My instinct was telling me to fold, and I talked myself into calling...
A hand later in the evening, and one which turned out to be my last hand of the night, involved another set.
I was dealt AA in EP and raised to $2 again. I was sitting on around $80 on this table and hand been raising pre a lot.
No respect then, so three callers, including the BB.
I bet out $5 on a flop three low cards, two folds before the BB called.
This immediately set alarm bells ringing as this foe had been playing T-I-G-H-T.
Turn another rag, foe checks, I bet $7.50 (half the pot) and she check raises to $15.
Yes I have Aces but she has a set, a slim chance of 2 pr, but she def has me and I fold.
In hindsight, I could have maybe gotten away with a $5 bet on turn as there were no draws. A call from her on the turn means most likely I am ahead.
The way she played her set was the way I would have played it, two, three years ago. It works but against experienced players it is just too obvious.
The title says a post on the dollar too but I'm at work and need to get back on it.Will try to giev some thoughts on the dollar this weekend.
You have disguise and more often than not, surety that you have the best hand. The perfect storm is when u are up against an overpair or big ace that hits.
Extracting the most money out of sets is an art; sniffing out sets even more so - but to be profitable consistently playing full ring hold'em cash you need to have this skill.
Case in point last night. I was four-tabling my usual $50 cash games and slowly chipping up.
I had doubled up on one table when I got involved in a big hand with a player who had recently sat down.
I flat-called his EP $2 raise with AKo in mid position and saw a two-way flop of AJx (2 hearts). He led out just under the pot on the flop, I smooth-called. Turn a second Ace. He again leads out 3/4 of the pot. I call. River a blank heart, he fires out a $23 bet.
What does he have?
Well, unless he is bluffing he has to have at least AK, AQ, AJ, JJ or flush - and that's it.
Is he bluffing? You very, very, very rarely get full-ring players who play this aggressively - firing three bluffs in a row is tough! As I said earlier, he had only recently sat down so I had no read on him.
What I should have done was type his name into 'Find a Player' (we were playing on Pokerstars) - he was sitting at 10-tables. A multi-table bot. No bluffs. A clear fold.
As it was I made a terrible call and duly lost.
My instinct was telling me to fold, and I talked myself into calling...
A hand later in the evening, and one which turned out to be my last hand of the night, involved another set.
I was dealt AA in EP and raised to $2 again. I was sitting on around $80 on this table and hand been raising pre a lot.
No respect then, so three callers, including the BB.
I bet out $5 on a flop three low cards, two folds before the BB called.
This immediately set alarm bells ringing as this foe had been playing T-I-G-H-T.
Turn another rag, foe checks, I bet $7.50 (half the pot) and she check raises to $15.
Yes I have Aces but she has a set, a slim chance of 2 pr, but she def has me and I fold.
In hindsight, I could have maybe gotten away with a $5 bet on turn as there were no draws. A call from her on the turn means most likely I am ahead.
The way she played her set was the way I would have played it, two, three years ago. It works but against experienced players it is just too obvious.
The title says a post on the dollar too but I'm at work and need to get back on it.Will try to giev some thoughts on the dollar this weekend.
Saturday, January 31, 2009
One hundred dollars
Hi all, sorry for the lack of updates again. I've just returned from two weeks sunning myself in Florida.
My parents spend most of the winter there now - been doing it for five years now -and I finally got my arse over to visit them.
Played a lot of golf, studied, eat well and managed three runs.
I deliberatley left my laptop at home so I would study more, although I couldn't stay away from the felt for two whole weeks and downloaded FT on my mum's laptop.
I four tabled cash games on the whole and finsihed around $100 up.
Also had a shot at a few Mansion SNGs, but basically lost my rakeback from the previous month.
The online betting ban must be so frustrating for Americans - I couldn't even place a bet on the Australian Open tennis.
I fancied Dementieva and got a friend to place a £20 bet for me and got 9.5 - but she crashed out to Serena in the semis. Bum!
My parents spend most of the winter there now - been doing it for five years now -and I finally got my arse over to visit them.
Played a lot of golf, studied, eat well and managed three runs.
I deliberatley left my laptop at home so I would study more, although I couldn't stay away from the felt for two whole weeks and downloaded FT on my mum's laptop.
I four tabled cash games on the whole and finsihed around $100 up.
Also had a shot at a few Mansion SNGs, but basically lost my rakeback from the previous month.
The online betting ban must be so frustrating for Americans - I couldn't even place a bet on the Australian Open tennis.
I fancied Dementieva and got a friend to place a £20 bet for me and got 9.5 - but she crashed out to Serena in the semis. Bum!
Tuesday, January 06, 2009
Poker Pains
No poker at all to speak of, hence the lack of updates for ages.
I had a very boozy Christmas and then a week off work to rest and recover. During the past three weeks I have played maybe 20 SNGs and tourneys, all at small buy-ins and most have amounted to nothing.
I don't really have the motivation to play at the moment. I'm studying a lot, playing a bit of XBOX 360, reading, chilling - just no poker.
I'm sure the will to play to return, I've had breaks like this before, so keep checking the blog.
The only wisdom I can impart on you is that I am slightly concerned about a sterling rebound. Looking at the numbers I have $6k in various poker accounts and neteller, which at current levels is £4,100. It costs a fiver to withdraw cash, so I may just pull out most of it and then put it back in again when the dollar is stronger.
The problem is I'm pretty sure the dollar will weaken against most currencies, say the Aussie dollar, Canadian dollar but against sterling (which is pants at the mo), I'm less sure.
So for now is do nothing - which pretty much sums up my poker grinding at the mo!!!
I had a very boozy Christmas and then a week off work to rest and recover. During the past three weeks I have played maybe 20 SNGs and tourneys, all at small buy-ins and most have amounted to nothing.
I don't really have the motivation to play at the moment. I'm studying a lot, playing a bit of XBOX 360, reading, chilling - just no poker.
I'm sure the will to play to return, I've had breaks like this before, so keep checking the blog.
The only wisdom I can impart on you is that I am slightly concerned about a sterling rebound. Looking at the numbers I have $6k in various poker accounts and neteller, which at current levels is £4,100. It costs a fiver to withdraw cash, so I may just pull out most of it and then put it back in again when the dollar is stronger.
The problem is I'm pretty sure the dollar will weaken against most currencies, say the Aussie dollar, Canadian dollar but against sterling (which is pants at the mo), I'm less sure.
So for now is do nothing - which pretty much sums up my poker grinding at the mo!!!
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
A whole lot of nothing
Been running bad Sunday and Monday - nothing serious. But just can't seem to get anything going.
I was down around $50 on Sunday. $20 on Mansion, $30 on FT where I busted out of the Brit Blogger game, a $10 SNG and $5r Omaha H/L.
The Omaha was slightly annoying as I was in the top ten in chips with around 50 to go (18 paid) but donked off all my chips with a stupid call.
The only win was a $26 token from a $6 tourney.
Last night I lost around $60 on Party cash before I managed a $20 boost to my bankroll over five SNGs on Mansion.
A $100 loss is nothing to get too down about but I think its a sign for me to close down the year pokerwise.
I have xmas boozing for the rest of the week and have learnt the hard way that alcohol and poker don't work for me.
Will post soon with an updated bankroll and some goals for 2009!
I was down around $50 on Sunday. $20 on Mansion, $30 on FT where I busted out of the Brit Blogger game, a $10 SNG and $5r Omaha H/L.
The Omaha was slightly annoying as I was in the top ten in chips with around 50 to go (18 paid) but donked off all my chips with a stupid call.
The only win was a $26 token from a $6 tourney.
Last night I lost around $60 on Party cash before I managed a $20 boost to my bankroll over five SNGs on Mansion.
A $100 loss is nothing to get too down about but I think its a sign for me to close down the year pokerwise.
I have xmas boozing for the rest of the week and have learnt the hard way that alcohol and poker don't work for me.
Will post soon with an updated bankroll and some goals for 2009!
Sunday, December 14, 2008
Quick update and more on dollar
Nothing doing on the poker front really.
Busted out of four SNGs well out of the money just now, which was the first time I've logged on in a few days.
May play the Brit Bloggerment but need to tidy my flat which is looking like a pig sty at the mo.
Quickie on the dollar - a very respected fund manager last week predicted parity - $1 for £1. Shit for visitors to that fair land - awesome for my bankroll.
Im not sure it'll get down there tbh, maybe $1.20, but am following it every day at work so will try to update again when there is a firmer view out there.
Busted out of four SNGs well out of the money just now, which was the first time I've logged on in a few days.
May play the Brit Bloggerment but need to tidy my flat which is looking like a pig sty at the mo.
Quickie on the dollar - a very respected fund manager last week predicted parity - $1 for £1. Shit for visitors to that fair land - awesome for my bankroll.
Im not sure it'll get down there tbh, maybe $1.20, but am following it every day at work so will try to update again when there is a firmer view out there.
Monday, December 08, 2008
SNG rebound
After going 1 for 15 on Saturday I managed to make it all back again on Sunday with some wins. My ROI has dropped from the frankly ridiculous 83% down to a respectable 38%.
In the last batch I ended up getting in a right ding-dong with a dutch cock called MaxMDR. He was bitching about missing out on the $49k jackpot when his As got busted by J9s all-in pre. He said that cost him the jackpot, I told him he was full of shit, which he didn't like.
Anyway, we spent most of the next half-an-hour bitching at each other. I got him steaming when I beat his AKo with the mighty J5s.
He raised all-in on my blind, I (correctly) called off half my stack to bubble the c*nt :)
He was playing on another table with me and got his revenge by busting me on the bubble.
Anyway, one of the reasons we were arguing was about the rules of the jackpot SNGs on iPoker. I was under the impression that you needed to play five-in-a-row as they fill up. He said they didn't need to be consecutive games.
I had asked Mansion support about this but had missed their reply. I double checked my inbox to find the Dutch twat was right. They need to be consecutive ie you can't play another SNG in between, but they can be played over a 48 hour period.
This makes it A LOT easier and I'm gonna continue playing them. The standard of play is perfect for my style. Very loose early doors so I limp lots and more often than not get paid when I hit. But they all tighten right up around the bubble and my aggro-pushing works wonders.
You still need the hands but I've come mighty close already while five tabling, so if I limit myself to three-tables I reckon I can make a tidy profit.
Wish me luck!
In the last batch I ended up getting in a right ding-dong with a dutch cock called MaxMDR. He was bitching about missing out on the $49k jackpot when his As got busted by J9s all-in pre. He said that cost him the jackpot, I told him he was full of shit, which he didn't like.
Anyway, we spent most of the next half-an-hour bitching at each other. I got him steaming when I beat his AKo with the mighty J5s.
He raised all-in on my blind, I (correctly) called off half my stack to bubble the c*nt :)
He was playing on another table with me and got his revenge by busting me on the bubble.
Anyway, one of the reasons we were arguing was about the rules of the jackpot SNGs on iPoker. I was under the impression that you needed to play five-in-a-row as they fill up. He said they didn't need to be consecutive games.
I had asked Mansion support about this but had missed their reply. I double checked my inbox to find the Dutch twat was right. They need to be consecutive ie you can't play another SNG in between, but they can be played over a 48 hour period.
This makes it A LOT easier and I'm gonna continue playing them. The standard of play is perfect for my style. Very loose early doors so I limp lots and more often than not get paid when I hit. But they all tighten right up around the bubble and my aggro-pushing works wonders.
You still need the hands but I've come mighty close already while five tabling, so if I limit myself to three-tables I reckon I can make a tidy profit.
Wish me luck!
Sunday, December 07, 2008
WBCOOP
I have registered to play in the PokerStars World Blogger Championship of Online Poker!
All bloggers can play in this exclusive online poker tournament.
Registration code: 569397
48 hours
Last night I had a terrible session: 15 SNGs, one first, 14 nothings.
Couldn't think, couldn't play after 48 hours of no sleep. New York is an absolutely amazing city - if you like London, you'll love NY.
The people have an energy sometimes lacking among Brits - we saw a street brawl between a white lawyer and some black dude.
The lawyer was being a total dick and getting in people's faces. The black dude took exception and started pounded his head against a taxi cab parked outside.
The lawyer started shouting "I'm gonna sue yr ass!", the black dude shouting back "Sue me, homie".
Then the lawyer's two girlfriends jumped on the two wrestling fighters, screaming like excited teenagers.
It was FUCKING hilarious, something out of the movies.
We went to this bar called the ChillOut bar and were greeted on arrival by platters of food, buckets of bottled beer and whole bottles of vodka and whiskey.
Fuck the credit crunch!
As well as drinking myself to oblivion and eating huge portions of food, I also went shopping (not as cheap now the dollar is stronger) and err...did a bit of work.
It was actually a press trip that I blagged my way on so the the work load was much lighter than a normal investment conference.
Anyway, I returned to Brixton fucking knackered and stupidly decided to play some jackpot SNGs on Mansion. I had my first place in the first batch of five - after that it went to shit.
Was so tired, by the end, I just wanted to bust out and sleep.
Played another batch just now, after sleeping for around 13 hours, and managed two firsts and a second so I still have the magic! :)
Couldn't think, couldn't play after 48 hours of no sleep. New York is an absolutely amazing city - if you like London, you'll love NY.
The people have an energy sometimes lacking among Brits - we saw a street brawl between a white lawyer and some black dude.
The lawyer was being a total dick and getting in people's faces. The black dude took exception and started pounded his head against a taxi cab parked outside.
The lawyer started shouting "I'm gonna sue yr ass!", the black dude shouting back "Sue me, homie".
Then the lawyer's two girlfriends jumped on the two wrestling fighters, screaming like excited teenagers.
It was FUCKING hilarious, something out of the movies.
We went to this bar called the ChillOut bar and were greeted on arrival by platters of food, buckets of bottled beer and whole bottles of vodka and whiskey.
Fuck the credit crunch!
As well as drinking myself to oblivion and eating huge portions of food, I also went shopping (not as cheap now the dollar is stronger) and err...did a bit of work.
It was actually a press trip that I blagged my way on so the the work load was much lighter than a normal investment conference.
Anyway, I returned to Brixton fucking knackered and stupidly decided to play some jackpot SNGs on Mansion. I had my first place in the first batch of five - after that it went to shit.
Was so tired, by the end, I just wanted to bust out and sleep.
Played another batch just now, after sleeping for around 13 hours, and managed two firsts and a second so I still have the magic! :)
Tuesday, December 02, 2008
Maui jackpot
I had three tilts at the Maui jackpot on Mansion, which I've only just realised is on the iPoker network!!
The jackpot on the $5+$1 tables is a very tempting $49,000 for five consecutive firsts. This doesn't mean five firsts in a row over several days but five consecutive wins in a row as each Maui table opens up so to win them involves five tabling.
I play on a laptop which means I can't fit all five on to the screen and it all gets rather hectic.
The matrix SNGs are excellent training for this, however, and playing different foes is actually a little easier.
The opposition is generally pretty soft and my win rate is pretty decent.
Over 20 games (five games from previous sessions), I have a 83% ROI and am up $101!
The first batch I got a first and two seconds for a $20 profit, the second batch two firsts and a third for a $30 profit and the final batch: two first and three thirds for a $50 profit. I was on for the jackpot right up until the end, and was four-tabling having won one of the five outright. But I busted third in two of them in quick succession.
I also had a small $17 win on a cash game which makes for not a bad evening.
The jackpot will undoubtedly have been snared by someone while I'm in New York and will reset itself back to $15k. But if it isn't I'm gonna go all out over the weekend when I get back to win it.
The jackpot on the $5+$1 tables is a very tempting $49,000 for five consecutive firsts. This doesn't mean five firsts in a row over several days but five consecutive wins in a row as each Maui table opens up so to win them involves five tabling.
I play on a laptop which means I can't fit all five on to the screen and it all gets rather hectic.
The matrix SNGs are excellent training for this, however, and playing different foes is actually a little easier.
The opposition is generally pretty soft and my win rate is pretty decent.
Over 20 games (five games from previous sessions), I have a 83% ROI and am up $101!
The first batch I got a first and two seconds for a $20 profit, the second batch two firsts and a third for a $30 profit and the final batch: two first and three thirds for a $50 profit. I was on for the jackpot right up until the end, and was four-tabling having won one of the five outright. But I busted third in two of them in quick succession.
I also had a small $17 win on a cash game which makes for not a bad evening.
The jackpot will undoubtedly have been snared by someone while I'm in New York and will reset itself back to $15k. But if it isn't I'm gonna go all out over the weekend when I get back to win it.
Dollar update
OK, I was a little premature in my sterling rally forecast of a week ago.
It looks like the Bank of England is going to cut rates by 0.50% to 1.00%, maybe even another 1.50% are there are risks of a short term rout of sterling.
One commentator is forecasting $1.27.
No-one really knows for sure but the Bank of England seems to be happy to let sterling depreciate. My advice now is - let it ride!
It looks like the Bank of England is going to cut rates by 0.50% to 1.00%, maybe even another 1.50% are there are risks of a short term rout of sterling.
One commentator is forecasting $1.27.
No-one really knows for sure but the Bank of England seems to be happy to let sterling depreciate. My advice now is - let it ride!
Breakeven(ish) poker
I logged on again yesterday for a couple of short cash sessions on Mansion.
A $40 win before supper followed by a $60 losing session after. I was playing pretty aggressively pre-flop during both sessions - it worked in the first but not the second.
Got buggered with Ks v Js when he flopped trips and I called his river raise.
Loosening up is a much harder style to play as if it goes past the flop you need to be very careful of slowplayers and willing to deal with the swings.
You also need to tilt your foes enough to get them to call you down when you have the goods.
This is a BIG problem when they are all multi-tabling, not paying much attention and playing boring ABC poker. During the weekday evenings, this happens a lot and for the life of me I can't really think of way to beat them except follow suit, tighten up and grind. Yawn!
I'm off to New York tomorrow for three days through work. Never been and can't wait to visit - gonna do a bit of shopping and drink myself silly on free mojitos (all expenses baby!).
Will play a little tonight before my 5.45am taxi to Heathrow. Urgh!
A $40 win before supper followed by a $60 losing session after. I was playing pretty aggressively pre-flop during both sessions - it worked in the first but not the second.
Got buggered with Ks v Js when he flopped trips and I called his river raise.
Loosening up is a much harder style to play as if it goes past the flop you need to be very careful of slowplayers and willing to deal with the swings.
You also need to tilt your foes enough to get them to call you down when you have the goods.
This is a BIG problem when they are all multi-tabling, not paying much attention and playing boring ABC poker. During the weekday evenings, this happens a lot and for the life of me I can't really think of way to beat them except follow suit, tighten up and grind. Yawn!
I'm off to New York tomorrow for three days through work. Never been and can't wait to visit - gonna do a bit of shopping and drink myself silly on free mojitos (all expenses baby!).
Will play a little tonight before my 5.45am taxi to Heathrow. Urgh!
Sunday, November 30, 2008
Decent Sunday
I had a great session this afternoon on Mansion, when I logged out $220 up.
I was only two-tabling 8-man, $50 NL but one of the tables had a seriously aggressive raiser from Ireland who was tilting pretty much everyone.
He had position on me, but I kept chipping up off him; check-calling and check-raising.
The big hand, however, was against another foe who had doubled off the aggro player. I was sitting on the button with K7s and called a double blind raise.
Flop K,6,7. Turn 7. And I won all my foes $96 stack when he couldn't let go of Aces.
I decided to leave with $240 on one table and $75 on the other.
I was only two-tabling 8-man, $50 NL but one of the tables had a seriously aggressive raiser from Ireland who was tilting pretty much everyone.
He had position on me, but I kept chipping up off him; check-calling and check-raising.
The big hand, however, was against another foe who had doubled off the aggro player. I was sitting on the button with K7s and called a double blind raise.
Flop K,6,7. Turn 7. And I won all my foes $96 stack when he couldn't let go of Aces.
I decided to leave with $240 on one table and $75 on the other.
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
Dollar thoughts
For those of you that follow my blog, I first made my forecasts that the pound would fall to $1.50 against the dollar back in May when the dollar stood at $1.95 - Dollar forecast
Well, I have some more 'thoughts' that may interest you. The US Government yesterday announced a second $800bn lending programme to supplement the $400bn TARP program. This is a LOT of money. By comparison, the UK pledged £20bn in the pre-budget report this week.
I think the dollar will stay strong, and maybe get even stronger in the very short term, but come the New Year and into 2009 IT WILL TANK.
In the simplest terms, the only way the US can pay for all this spending is by printing a lot of money. Printing money means hyper-inflation and a weaker dollar.
It may not happen tomorrow but a fund manager we own and respect highly is now 45% short the dollar. This is the same manager who was 30% long the dollar as recently as last month and rode a $2.10 sterling/dollar all the way down, getting out at $1.55.
Just a warning...
Well, I have some more 'thoughts' that may interest you. The US Government yesterday announced a second $800bn lending programme to supplement the $400bn TARP program. This is a LOT of money. By comparison, the UK pledged £20bn in the pre-budget report this week.
I think the dollar will stay strong, and maybe get even stronger in the very short term, but come the New Year and into 2009 IT WILL TANK.
In the simplest terms, the only way the US can pay for all this spending is by printing a lot of money. Printing money means hyper-inflation and a weaker dollar.
It may not happen tomorrow but a fund manager we own and respect highly is now 45% short the dollar. This is the same manager who was 30% long the dollar as recently as last month and rode a $2.10 sterling/dollar all the way down, getting out at $1.55.
Just a warning...
Sunday, November 23, 2008
Brit Blogger (part deux)
Somehow I managed to take down the Brit Blogger tonight with some truly stupendous shoving!
I've had a crack at Zagga's tourney a few times without making the final table.
Doubling up early with As v Js definitely helped and I managed to make a big comeback against Total Crud with three shove and hopes with A high and King high twice.
I then went back to Mansion Poker and lost my winnings in about three minutes when my AKs couldn't beat AJo, all in pre, and via a misplaced shove with A10 to double up another shortie.
Easy come, easy go!
I've had a crack at Zagga's tourney a few times without making the final table.
Doubling up early with As v Js definitely helped and I managed to make a big comeback against Total Crud with three shove and hopes with A high and King high twice.
I then went back to Mansion Poker and lost my winnings in about three minutes when my AKs couldn't beat AJo, all in pre, and via a misplaced shove with A10 to double up another shortie.
Easy come, easy go!
Tourneys suck, cash games gut
I've had a pretty poor run in the handful of tourneys I've tried over the last few days. I've busted out of an $8 MTT on Stars, $10 on Full Tilt and $3 on Mansion without accumulating any chips.
Cash games however have netted me a few dollars - around $40 more on Party and $60 on Mansion.
I flopped quad sevens on one hand on Mansion and my foe turned a nine get a full house. Later on the same table I played against the worst player I've seen in a long time. He was a classic Any two card calling station. I stacked his first $10 with Qs against his Ace high. Then doubled him up with AJs versus his mighty 83o.
He then doubled up again with A7 v Ako, calling all in with a pair of sevens and spiking his two-outer on the river.
I was one to his left and managed to take another $20 off him over a few hands before he went busto.
Will try to play the Brit Blogger tonight if I remember and do some more grinding a quick afternoon kip...
Cash games however have netted me a few dollars - around $40 more on Party and $60 on Mansion.
I flopped quad sevens on one hand on Mansion and my foe turned a nine get a full house. Later on the same table I played against the worst player I've seen in a long time. He was a classic Any two card calling station. I stacked his first $10 with Qs against his Ace high. Then doubled him up with AJs versus his mighty 83o.
He then doubled up again with A7 v Ako, calling all in with a pair of sevens and spiking his two-outer on the river.
I was one to his left and managed to take another $20 off him over a few hands before he went busto.
Will try to play the Brit Blogger tonight if I remember and do some more grinding a quick afternoon kip...
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
Party Poking
Logged on tonight after work and rather than spend two and a half hours grinding away at two $10 Matrix SNGs, I decided to try and make some proper money.
I thought I'd give Party Poker a go again as I hadn't tried their new software yet.
Initially it was pretty disappointing. I entered a $9 MTT with around 500 around fish and busted out 300th without really playing a hand. The levels were every 10 minutes and it was way too fast for my liking. No hands, no time to read my foes. I don't think it was a turbo but if it was, I may not bother with many more.
Slightly pissed off with my first 45 mins on the site, I sat down at three then four $50 NL tables, full-ring. It was the same tight, boring, fishless snoozefest I remembered.
I was raising 3xBB a lot but no-one was biting. When they did, I had nothing, they had something and I had to fold. My bluffs got picked off and I kept doubling up $10 weaklings pushing with Aces. I was a buy-in down when I finally found a donkey to play with.
The background to the first hand was that I had pushed him off two pots following his 3xBB pre-flop raises previously. Once with position (he was sitting two to my left) and once from the SB; the first was with the nuts and the second was a bluff.
He wasn't steaming but he had me labeled as aggressive.
***** Hand History for Game 7550101414 *****
$50 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Wednesday, November 19, 16:11:49 ET 2008
Table Speed #1381865 (No DP) (Real Money)
Seat 7 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 1: yzfdavid ( $35.96 USD )
Seat 3: thuttere ( $10.25 USD )
Seat 5: Tomshot ( $59.70 USD )
Seat 7: QuanticFive ( $69.16 USD )
Seat 4: VincentVegas84 ( $48.26 USD )
Seat 8: lissa35 ( $50 USD )
Seat 9: Aman_2525 ( $31.56 USD )
Seat 6: Sebmaster85 ( $22.50 USD )
Seat 2: Gauner175 ( $50 USD )
lissa35 posts small blind [$0.25 USD].
Aman_2525 posts big blind [$0.50 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to QuanticFive [ 6s 6c ]
VincentVegas84 raises [$1.50 USD]
QuanticFive calls [$1.50 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 6d, As, Ac ] - Please have a big ace!!!
VincentVegas84 checks
QuanticFive checks
** Dealing Turn ** [ 7h ]
VincentVegas84 checks
QuanticFive bets [$1.50 USD]
VincentVegas84 raises [$5.05 USD] - Hell yes, you've got a big ace!
QuanticFive calls [$3.55 USD] - bait struck...
** Dealing River ** [ 4h ]
VincentVegas84 bets [$11.37 USD]
bretaudeau has joined the table.
QuanticFive is all-In [$62.61 USD]
VincentVegas84 is all-In [$30.34 USD] - He thought about this but had been bamboozled by the power of Quantic :)
VincentVegas84 shows [ Qh, Ad ]three of a kind, Aces.
QuanticFive shows [ 6s, 6c ]a full house, Sixes full of Aces.
QuanticFive wins $20.90 USD from the side pot 1 with a full house, Sixes full of Aces.
QuanticFive wins $94.27 USD from the main pot with a full house, Sixes full of Aces.
Enjoyed that a lot!
So I was back in the black and had a loose table image on all four tables.
Mr Vegas buggered off but a new loser sat down, this time wearing a beret - although I also got a little lucky... :)
***** Hand History for Game 7550154089 *****
$50 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Wednesday, November 19, 16:30:19 ET 2008
Table Speed #1381865 (No DP) (Real Money)
Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 3: thuttere ( $13.54 USD )
Seat 5: Tomshot ( $62.94 USD )
Seat 7: QuanticFive ( $110.42 USD )
Seat 8: lissa35 ( $42.50 USD )
Seat 9: Aman_2525 ( $56.38 USD )
Seat 6: Sebmaster85 ( $25.50 USD )
Seat 2: Gauner175 ( $48.05 USD )
Seat 10: bretaudeau ( $30.34 USD )
Seat 1: pietjevdl ( $10 USD )
Seat 4: Aymen2007 ( $23.46 USD )
Aman_2525 posts small blind [$0.25 USD].
bretaudeau posts big blind [$0.50 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to QuanticFive [ As Ah ]
Aymen2007 calls [$0.50 USD]
QuanticFive raises [$2 USD]
Aman_2525 calls [$1.75 USD]
bretaudeau calls [$1.50 USD]
Aymen2007 calls [$1.50 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 7h, 3h, 6s ] - slightly scary but must fight on...
Aman_2525 checks
bretaudeau checks
Aymen2007 checks
QuanticFive bets [$5.70 USD]
Aman_2525 calls [$5.70 USD]
bretaudeau calls [$5.70 USD]
Aymen2007 folds
** Dealing Turn ** [ Ac ] - Bingo!
Aman_2525 checks
bretaudeau is all-In [$22.64 USD]
QuanticFive is all-In [$102.72 USD]
Aman_2525 is all-In [$48.68 USD]
** Dealing River ** [ 6h ]
Aman_2525 shows [ 7s, 7d ]a full house, Sevens full of Sixes.
bretaudeau doesn't show [ Qs, 4h ]a pair of Sixes.
QuanticFive shows [ As, Ah ]a full house, Aces full of Sixes.
QuanticFive wins $54.04 USD from the side pot 2 with a full house, Aces full of Sixes.
QuanticFive wins $52.08 USD from the side pot 1 with a full house, Aces full of Sixes.
QuanticFive wins $90.02 USD from the main pot with a full house, Aces full of Sixes.
A nice quadruple, although on reflection I would have doubled Aman_2525 up without the turn and had just a break-even session. Bretaudeau had shown himself to be a huge bluffer so I would have had to call if say a king had come up.
Anyway, I made $100 profit (which is now is now more like £65 rather than £50 from before)
I thought I'd give Party Poker a go again as I hadn't tried their new software yet.
Initially it was pretty disappointing. I entered a $9 MTT with around 500 around fish and busted out 300th without really playing a hand. The levels were every 10 minutes and it was way too fast for my liking. No hands, no time to read my foes. I don't think it was a turbo but if it was, I may not bother with many more.
Slightly pissed off with my first 45 mins on the site, I sat down at three then four $50 NL tables, full-ring. It was the same tight, boring, fishless snoozefest I remembered.
I was raising 3xBB a lot but no-one was biting. When they did, I had nothing, they had something and I had to fold. My bluffs got picked off and I kept doubling up $10 weaklings pushing with Aces. I was a buy-in down when I finally found a donkey to play with.
The background to the first hand was that I had pushed him off two pots following his 3xBB pre-flop raises previously. Once with position (he was sitting two to my left) and once from the SB; the first was with the nuts and the second was a bluff.
He wasn't steaming but he had me labeled as aggressive.
***** Hand History for Game 7550101414 *****
$50 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Wednesday, November 19, 16:11:49 ET 2008
Table Speed #1381865 (No DP) (Real Money)
Seat 7 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 1: yzfdavid ( $35.96 USD )
Seat 3: thuttere ( $10.25 USD )
Seat 5: Tomshot ( $59.70 USD )
Seat 7: QuanticFive ( $69.16 USD )
Seat 4: VincentVegas84 ( $48.26 USD )
Seat 8: lissa35 ( $50 USD )
Seat 9: Aman_2525 ( $31.56 USD )
Seat 6: Sebmaster85 ( $22.50 USD )
Seat 2: Gauner175 ( $50 USD )
lissa35 posts small blind [$0.25 USD].
Aman_2525 posts big blind [$0.50 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to QuanticFive [ 6s 6c ]
VincentVegas84 raises [$1.50 USD]
QuanticFive calls [$1.50 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 6d, As, Ac ] - Please have a big ace!!!
VincentVegas84 checks
QuanticFive checks
** Dealing Turn ** [ 7h ]
VincentVegas84 checks
QuanticFive bets [$1.50 USD]
VincentVegas84 raises [$5.05 USD] - Hell yes, you've got a big ace!
QuanticFive calls [$3.55 USD] - bait struck...
** Dealing River ** [ 4h ]
VincentVegas84 bets [$11.37 USD]
bretaudeau has joined the table.
QuanticFive is all-In [$62.61 USD]
VincentVegas84 is all-In [$30.34 USD] - He thought about this but had been bamboozled by the power of Quantic :)
VincentVegas84 shows [ Qh, Ad ]three of a kind, Aces.
QuanticFive shows [ 6s, 6c ]a full house, Sixes full of Aces.
QuanticFive wins $20.90 USD from the side pot 1 with a full house, Sixes full of Aces.
QuanticFive wins $94.27 USD from the main pot with a full house, Sixes full of Aces.
Enjoyed that a lot!
So I was back in the black and had a loose table image on all four tables.
Mr Vegas buggered off but a new loser sat down, this time wearing a beret - although I also got a little lucky... :)
***** Hand History for Game 7550154089 *****
$50 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Wednesday, November 19, 16:30:19 ET 2008
Table Speed #1381865 (No DP) (Real Money)
Seat 8 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 3: thuttere ( $13.54 USD )
Seat 5: Tomshot ( $62.94 USD )
Seat 7: QuanticFive ( $110.42 USD )
Seat 8: lissa35 ( $42.50 USD )
Seat 9: Aman_2525 ( $56.38 USD )
Seat 6: Sebmaster85 ( $25.50 USD )
Seat 2: Gauner175 ( $48.05 USD )
Seat 10: bretaudeau ( $30.34 USD )
Seat 1: pietjevdl ( $10 USD )
Seat 4: Aymen2007 ( $23.46 USD )
Aman_2525 posts small blind [$0.25 USD].
bretaudeau posts big blind [$0.50 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to QuanticFive [ As Ah ]
Aymen2007 calls [$0.50 USD]
QuanticFive raises [$2 USD]
Aman_2525 calls [$1.75 USD]
bretaudeau calls [$1.50 USD]
Aymen2007 calls [$1.50 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 7h, 3h, 6s ] - slightly scary but must fight on...
Aman_2525 checks
bretaudeau checks
Aymen2007 checks
QuanticFive bets [$5.70 USD]
Aman_2525 calls [$5.70 USD]
bretaudeau calls [$5.70 USD]
Aymen2007 folds
** Dealing Turn ** [ Ac ] - Bingo!
Aman_2525 checks
bretaudeau is all-In [$22.64 USD]
QuanticFive is all-In [$102.72 USD]
Aman_2525 is all-In [$48.68 USD]
** Dealing River ** [ 6h ]
Aman_2525 shows [ 7s, 7d ]a full house, Sevens full of Sixes.
bretaudeau doesn't show [ Qs, 4h ]a pair of Sixes.
QuanticFive shows [ As, Ah ]a full house, Aces full of Sixes.
QuanticFive wins $54.04 USD from the side pot 2 with a full house, Aces full of Sixes.
QuanticFive wins $52.08 USD from the side pot 1 with a full house, Aces full of Sixes.
QuanticFive wins $90.02 USD from the main pot with a full house, Aces full of Sixes.
A nice quadruple, although on reflection I would have doubled Aman_2525 up without the turn and had just a break-even session. Bretaudeau had shown himself to be a huge bluffer so I would have had to call if say a king had come up.
Anyway, I made $100 profit (which is now is now more like £65 rather than £50 from before)
Monday, November 17, 2008
Nearly big...
Woke up on Saturday morning feeling very hungover and unable to sleep...my cure? Poker!
It was 7.30am so there were still a few late-night Americans playing free and loose, so I joined them three-tabling $50 NL on Stars. Won a bit, lost a bit, then won a bit back.
Was having trouble concentrating as I was still a bit fooked so I logged off and tried my luck on a $3 donkfest. 1566 entries, first $820.
The first hour was a joke...the very first hand I tried to bluss with 64o on the river with 6 high. Got called but my table image was set. At one stage I was 75% flops seen, which dipped down to 65% by the end of the first hour.
I had trebled up and was talking a lot of trash.
I accumulated a decent amount of chips when I made the great play (!) of calling in the BB with Aces against a button push with 9s but other than that I can't remember many hands.
I watched Match of the Day, cooked some food, eat, brushed my teeth, while carrying the laptop round my flat. I had a free corporate box ticket through work to see Arsenal v Villa and time was ticking but I couldn't bust out.
My coinflips won, my big pairs held up, nobody called my bluffs. It was closing in on 2pm and I was 7th with 28 left.
I was in control but couldn't decide...do I post and fold my way to probably second last table, go for the win and fuck the footie???
In the end, the poker gods decided for me.
MP doubles blinds I call with AJo, BB calls. Flop A77. All check flop, turn blank. I bet half pot on turn, BB folds, MP raises. Should have folded here but I call.
Seven on river, I push, MP snap calls and turns over Aces.
The very next hand, I find AQs. Serial raiser trebles blind, I push, SB wakes up with Aces...IGHN.
The first hand I could have gotten away with, the second was tougher...
So no big score, a shitty $15 for four hours play, but it gave me something to think about on the tube up to north London...
Stayed away from home yesterday and returned late today to read about Milkybarkid's truly amazing exploits on the Omaha tables - that guy must be the UK's biggest online winner playing today - and made $12 playing a Matrix SNG.
Bed time now, and another week of trying to negotiate the fucked-up stock markets ahead.
It was 7.30am so there were still a few late-night Americans playing free and loose, so I joined them three-tabling $50 NL on Stars. Won a bit, lost a bit, then won a bit back.
Was having trouble concentrating as I was still a bit fooked so I logged off and tried my luck on a $3 donkfest. 1566 entries, first $820.
The first hour was a joke...the very first hand I tried to bluss with 64o on the river with 6 high. Got called but my table image was set. At one stage I was 75% flops seen, which dipped down to 65% by the end of the first hour.
I had trebled up and was talking a lot of trash.
I accumulated a decent amount of chips when I made the great play (!) of calling in the BB with Aces against a button push with 9s but other than that I can't remember many hands.
I watched Match of the Day, cooked some food, eat, brushed my teeth, while carrying the laptop round my flat. I had a free corporate box ticket through work to see Arsenal v Villa and time was ticking but I couldn't bust out.
My coinflips won, my big pairs held up, nobody called my bluffs. It was closing in on 2pm and I was 7th with 28 left.
I was in control but couldn't decide...do I post and fold my way to probably second last table, go for the win and fuck the footie???
In the end, the poker gods decided for me.
MP doubles blinds I call with AJo, BB calls. Flop A77. All check flop, turn blank. I bet half pot on turn, BB folds, MP raises. Should have folded here but I call.
Seven on river, I push, MP snap calls and turns over Aces.
The very next hand, I find AQs. Serial raiser trebles blind, I push, SB wakes up with Aces...IGHN.
The first hand I could have gotten away with, the second was tougher...
So no big score, a shitty $15 for four hours play, but it gave me something to think about on the tube up to north London...
Stayed away from home yesterday and returned late today to read about Milkybarkid's truly amazing exploits on the Omaha tables - that guy must be the UK's biggest online winner playing today - and made $12 playing a Matrix SNG.
Bed time now, and another week of trying to negotiate the fucked-up stock markets ahead.
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